The Strength (and Threat) of a Manchin-Romney Ticket

Hypothetical Manchin-Romney Ticket 2024

It might not seem like it, but Joe Manchin and Mitt Romney are essentially the same person. Not politically speaking, of course, but in what they’ve endured during their time in Congress. Manchin—who fellow Democrats would call a Republican and Republicans would call a moderate—and Romney—a Republican who at some point between his 2012 presidential run and now has become a “RINO” (Republican in Name Only)—have both been outcasts within their parties for some time. Coincidentally, the two have announced that they will not seek re-election in the Senate in 2024 (see here and here). This is perhaps what led to whispers whispers that the two might run for President on the same ticket as a 3rd party option.

If that were to happen, they would enjoy several advantages:

1. “New” Names
   

   The most obvious advantage of a Romney/Manchin ticket is that they’re not named Biden or Trump, both of whom are unpopular in national polls.

2. Anti-establishment
   

   Though both are long-time politicians, they would take on an “anti-establishment” quality by running under the 3rd Party designation. Recent polling has shown that there is an appetite for another option, particularly in swing states.

3. Compromise
   

   The ticket would signify compromise, a rarity in Washington. Voters may find this cross-party collaboration appealing, especially those tired of the “all or nothing,” “compromise is betrayal” mentality that now infects our politics.

4. Sympathy
   

   Because both men received few of the benefits afforded to those in the in-group and most of the vitriol we typically reserve for those outside of it, they would enter the race as sympathetic figures. For daring to buck the conventional views of their parties, they come off as principled, not zealots. In a time when fewer politicians vote against party lines, this could be refreshing in the eyes of many voters.

The hypothetical ticket would also have some weaknesses:

1. The “spoiler” scenario
   

   Brookings’ Bill Galston has outlined how a third-party option might actually pave the way for a Trump victory. Given tight margins in swing states, it is certainly plausible that a Romney/Manchin ticket would siphon enough moderate votes from President Biden to deny his re-election. Polling suggests that a third-party option would harm Biden disproportionately.

2. They are still long-time politicians
   

   At the risk of contradicting the above, both men have spent significant time serving in Washington. Being deemed “Career-politicians” could be enough to derail their chances, third-party or not.

3. Third-Party Challenges
   

   It has never been easy to run as a third-party candidate—just ask Bernie Sanders or Ross Perot. The existing infrastructure favors the perpetuation of the two-party system. For example, only those officially registered with a party may vote in primary elections in many states. This has the effect of limiting the power of registered independents.

Zooming out

Even if Romney and Manchin do not run, their departure from the Senate creates a serious problem. Both may have been unpopular among their parties, but their exit opens the door to more ideologues and extremists in the Senate. It will mean fewer checks and balances from within each party and even fewer votes across party lines. This will almost certainly be an obstacle for whomever wins the presidency, but ultimately it is we the people who will feel the brunt of an ineffective government.